Category: Expertise

China’s growing electric vehicle market

Foreigners hit speed bumps.

China is expected to reach 7 million new energy domestic vehicle (NEV) sales by 2025, according to Beijing’s 13th Five-Year Plan, finalized in 2015. Chinese NEV sales – the term China uses to refer to battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell cars – totaled 951,477 units between January 2011 and December 2016. These figures, which include passenger cars and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, have already made the Middle Kingdom the largest electric vehicles (EVs) market in the world, with 37.7% of global sales in 2016.

To address China’s dependence on oil exports and severe air pollution due to an overuse of coal as a main form of electricity production, the government announced in 2010 a trial program to provide monetary incentives for NEV automakers in five cities. The amount of the subsidies stood at 30 billion RMB (USD 4.4 billion) in 2016.

To further boost NEV sales, the government is luring Chinese consumers to adopt electric vehicles by promising charging stations. Beijing plans to install 400,000 charging points in the capital city by 2020. NEV consumers also benefit from central and local governments via cash subsidies, free parking spaces and free license plates.

Sales down in early 2017

After several car makers were fined for defrauding the subsidy program, Beijing enacted a new subsidy policy in August 2016, where only qualified manufacturers are eligible to receive NEV subsidies moving forward. More than a third of Chinese manufacturers, which fail to meet the policy’s qualification standards, are expected to be left out. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) also recently announced a restriction on the granting of licenses to new electric vehicle (EV) startups, limiting the number to just 10 per year.

Reduced subsidies and new policies caused he stock of EV sales to slump in January 2017, compared to a year earlier. Sales of NEVs dropped 74 percent to 5,682 unites, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).

The downsides of China’s supportive policies are emerging in the form of overcapacity and imperfect competition. More than 200 Chinese NEV manufacturers have thus entered this market to date, producing more than 4,000 licensed NEV models. Another hurdle to a mature market is that low-cost, low quality NEVs dominate. Sixty percent of China’s NEV market share belongs to low-cost cars, whereas less than 20 percent of the market share belongs to high-end ones.

Domestic suppliers in favor

One can only wonder what opportunities foreign eco-friendly carmakers have left in a very protectionist country, where the Chinese automotive brand BYD has been topping the segment sales for several years. Surprisingly, some do exist. Volkswagen recently signed a joint-venture agreement with Chinese manufacturer JAC Motor to mass produce 8 new EVs in China by 2020. Tesla Motors also is in talks to set up a factory in Shanghai.

Opportunities exist in power battery manufacturing as well. This key component of EVs has begun a period of rapid growth and strong demand for lithium-ion batteries. Last year, changes to Chinese legislation allowed foreign firms to set up wholly-owned electric vehicle battery manufacturing plants in free-trade zones in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin and Fujian.

On a less positive note, while China seems to gradually open-up its EV battery market to foreign companies, conditions still favor domestic suppliers. In June 2016, MIIT left some prominent foreign companies off a list of battery manufacturers approved to receive government subsidies, including Samsung and LG, which have been manufacturing batteries in China for many years. Exclusion from the list means that from January 20 18, manufacturers of EVs using batteries made by manufacturers not included on the approved list will not be eligible for government subsidies.

Even if still booming thanks to government subsidies, the future of China’s NEV market remains uncertain and challenging.

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CHINA LEADS IN GREEN BUILDING

China is the world’s largest green building market. With more than 1 billion square feet of certified green, sustainable building space, China has now surpassed the United States. It only took China half the time – about 10 years, compared to the US. China aims for a 50 percent commercial green building rate by 2020, as part of its pledges under the Paris Climate Agreement. If it reaches that goal, about half of green building space in the world will be in the Middle Kingdom.

For green building certification, China uses one domestic and two major Western standards : the China Three Star Standard, the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) standard from the US, and the Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM) standard from the United Kingdom.

The Value of Sustainability

Those three competing standards have their limits. With increasing urbanization – 300 million more Chinese people are expected to live in cities in the next 15 years – more green buildings will be needed. What is crucial now is thinking of green buildings in terms of sustainability.

Construction decisions made in China are often based on short-term costs instead of long-term savings from energy efficiency. Despite initiatives to improve energy efficiency, such as the Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development’s building energy efficiency label, these programs are still voluntary for the majority of buildings and will unlikely reduce energy consumption in China on a large scale.

Furthermore, the standards should develop new indicators on responding to climate change, such as total CO2 emission reduction or the carbon footprint of one building. The standards should take into account China’s vast territory and differentiated climatic zones. It is difficult to apply standards without considering the local situation.

The cost of green building techniques can represent between 10 – 30% in extra building costs. This remains a significant barrier for further adoption. Even if the Chinese government intends to subsidise around 40 – 50% of the additional building costs through a series of regulations and policies, most of the time, subsidies go straight to public buildings and (Chinese national) buyers of residential units. It is often faster for public buildings to get certification than for private construction. As a result, more than 70% of green buildings in 2013 were public buildings.

The Need for Western Technology

Besides the adoption of green building techniques, China has also seen a surge in ‘eco-city’ development in recent years. One of the best known is an area near the port city of Tianjin. Built in partnership with Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, the project plans to transform a former uninhabitable swamp into a residential area for more than a million people, as a satellite ‘eco-city’ of the municipality.

More than 100 such eco-projects are scattered throughout China, mainly aimed at establishing new cities of 250,000 to 500,000 people. These cities do create potential showcases and opportunities for Western technologies in a country hungry for foreign know-how. Yet, since green buildings are closely defined by standards, only materials and solutions that contribute to the certification score will have the chance to enter the Chinese green building market.

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HOW TO PREPARE THE DISTRIBUTION OF ONE’S PRODUCTS IN CHINA?

The current economic situation is pushing the organizations to designate export as the leading way to save the country. SME’s are considered as the spearhead of this strategy of external development.

In this context, some developing countries with high growth rate have become the targets for export and China is obviously a part of it. Indeed, its 300 million people with an European level of life have worth dreaming number of export managers.

Too many companies will take the plunge of exporting as soon as an opportunity will arise and will prefer to go ahead rather than trying to organize their approach of the market. The problem is that this strategy very quickly reaches its limit, especially in China. And this, no doubt, is one of the reasons of the French companies’ lack of success in exporting to China.

A methodical approach shall consist to firstly ask oneself some questions:

Am I ready to export to China?

Nowadays, some companies propose what is called “an export diagnosis”. This tool works by asking some questions to potential exporters and according to the given answers, it will determine if the company is ready to export or not. These questions will be about the company’s production capacity, the financial situation, international experience of the employees…

Regarding to exporting to China, we can take out some important and typical questions:

  • Have you already exported your products to some countries?

It is indeed important that the company, who wants to export to China, has already an experience in exporting to near countries or even better, to Asia. The return on experience (ROE) and the fact that the company counts some people used to communicate with other cultures in foreign languages… will be a very big added value and will give the possibility to go quicker on the market .

  • What are the real motivations for you for exporting to China?

We constantly hear about the huge consumption market in China and its high growth rate. Basing its strategy only on this fact will necessarily lead to disappointment. Some information must be collected because in reality some sectors are already spread among a lot of actors, some others are regulated by Chinese law, some are protected by Chinese Government with high import taxes…

  • Is your company in growth and is your financial situation healthy?

Developing his strategy, especially in far countries like China, requires a real investment for making market study, sending there a team several times a year… Without it, it will be impossible to understand the market, to develop a real local network based on long term cooperation and to control the local partners (distributors, agents…).

  • At what step of your product development are you?

Some companies may want to develop their products in China to sell in China. This strategy, taking into account, that a local production will be an advantage to develop its business, is smart but can be very risky if the company has not been able to learn and cumulate its experience. In that case, instead of managing selling issues, you will have to be focused on solving production problems.

  • What norms/standards do your products comply with?
In a country, where your products will often be in competition with local and cheaper products, the “Made in France” can be revealed as a key success factor. It can be an advantage in your future selling and you would have to concentrate your communication on it.-
  • Is your company able to develop and adapt its products to local needs?

No matter what anyone says, far countries, such as China, have different cultures, consumption behaviors, organizations… and it is quite likely that you will have to adapt your products in terms of packaging, design… Even, in some sectors, China shall be approached as a group of many small markets with for instance the difference North/South, City/countryside, Hong Kong/China mainland… If your company doesn’t have the ability to adapt its products, it may be necessary to find some local partners who will collaborate with you on this matter.

  • What is the situation on the market?

After the questionnaire regarding internal capability of the company to export, it is interesting to see what the situation on the market is.

  • Is the Chinese market interested by your products?

Even if this question can be seen as obvious, however it has to be the major focus in the strategic thoughts. SME often are very innovative and they are persuaded that their revolutionary products will get the interest of the Chinese market, believing that this product doesn’t exist in China or that the local products are lower, technically speaking. Based on it, these companies will often not loose time in analyzing the market needs. But, the reality is that Chinese manufacturers, traders, distributors… are aware of what happens and exist in foreign markets and know well the western technologies. Thus, it is not rare that some industrials or intermediaries will contact directly some European companies, to propose them cooperation by selling their products in China or by setting up a joint-venture. These contacts are a very good indicator of interest for your products.

Indeed, there is nothing better than Chinese people to know what Chinese market needs.

  • Who are the competitors and how are they organized?

The presence or not of competitors on the market will also contribute to determine if China is a good target and if yes, what would be the best strategy for your development. The problem will consist in getting information on these international and local companies.

It is very delicate and even sometimes impossible for a company to gather information on its competitors especially if the said company desires to be discreet about its interest for Chinese market, or if it doesn’t have any local employees to make this job. That is why the best solution is to outsource this analysis to an external company who is used to collect information in the field and giving clear recommendations based on real figures and best practices observed.

  • Do my products have to comply with local regulations?

China is protecting some sectors with, for instance, high import taxes, especially for equipment. These taxes or sometimes registrations fees and procedures can put a strain on the interest of your project by considerably increasing the cost of your products delivered in China. A deep study of the norms and local regulations will have to be included in your approach of the market and be a part of the calculation of your selling price. Some will tell you that China is the country of pragmatism and that it is necessary to jump on all the opportunities. It is true. But, we would add that pragmatism should not be confused with incoherence. Even if the market can be considered from outside, as completely disorganized, various and open, it is however, essential to approach it with methods and structure. If not, you will begin to sell in China, but your sales will stay at the lowest level, you will not be aware of prices and you will not control your partner (distributor/agent). In the better cases, you will “only” lose time (sometimes 2-3 precious years), but in worse cases, you will contribute to create a new competitor who will control the market. The only way to guarantee the success of your sales development in China is to move forward by benefiting from some people’s methods and experience.

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